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Event Information

26th Prediction Science Seminar

Date
July 10th, 2024 (Wed.) 15:00-17:30 (JST)
(26th, DA Joint seminar)
Language
Engish
Place
C107(R-CCS) or online(zoom)

To join the seminar, please contact the Prediction Science Seminar Office: prediction-seminar[remove here]@ml.riken.jp

Program

Time Content Speaker
15:00-16:30 Deep Bayesian Filter for nonlinear data assimilation Dr. Yuta Tarumi (Prefrerred Networks, Inc.)
16:30-17:30 Discussion -

Abstract

State estimation for nonlinear state space models is a challenging task. Existing assimilation methodologies predominantly assume Gaussian posteriors on physical space, where the actual posteriors become inevitably non-Gaussian. We propose Deep Bayesian Filtering (DBF) for data assimilation on nonlinear state space models (SSMs). DBF constructs new latent variables h_t on a new latent ("fancy") space and assimilates observations o_t. By (i) constraining the state transition on fancy space to be linear and (ii) learning a Gaussian inverse observation operator q(h_t|o_t), posteriors always remain Gaussian for DBF. Quite distinctively, the structured design of posteriors provides an analytic formula for the recursive computation of posteriors without accumulating Monte-Carlo sampling errors over time steps. DBF seeks the Gaussian inverse observation operators q(h_t|o_t) and other latent SSM parameters (e.g., dynamics matrix) by maximizing the evidence lower bound. Experiments show that DBF outperforms model-based approaches and latent assimilation methods in various tasks and conditions. I will also present possible extensions to this methodology to apply DBF to climate data assimilation.

Organizer

  • Prediction Science Laboratory (RIKEN CPR)
  • RIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research (BDR)

Co-organizer

  • Data Assimilation Research Team (R-CCS)
  • RIKEN Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program
  • Environmental Metabolic Analysis Research Team (RIKEN CSRS)
  • Computational Climate Science Research Team (R-CCS)
  • Medical Data Deep Learning Team (R-IH)
  • Medical Data Mathematical Reasoning Team (R-IH)
  • Laboratory for Physical Biology (RIKEN BDR)

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