32nd Prediction Science Seminar
- Date
- January 8th, 2025 (Wed.) 16:00-17:30 (JST)
- Language
- Engish
- Place
- C107(R-CCS) or online(zoom)
To join the seminar, please contact the Prediction Science Seminar Office: prediction-seminar[remove here]@ml.riken.jp
Program
Time | Content | Speaker |
---|---|---|
16:00-17:00 | On the predictability of AI models for weather prediction | Prof. Chanh Kieu (Indiana University) |
17:00-17:30 | Discussion | - |
Abstract
In this presentation, we examine the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using idealized settings with Lorenz 1963's model as well as deep-learning architectures trained on the ERA5 data, we show that different time-stepping techniques can have a strong influence on the model performance and weather predictability due to the chaotic nature of weather systems. Specifically, a small-step approach for which the future state is predicted by recursively iterating an AI model over a small-time increment displays strong sensitivity to the type of input channels, the number of data frames, or forecast lead times. In contrast, a big-step approach for which a current state is directly projected to a future state at each corresponding lead time provides much better forecast skill and a longer predictability range. In particular, the big-step approach is very resilient to different input channels, or data frames. In this regard, our results present a different method for implementing global AI models for weather prediction, which can optimize the model performance even with minimum input channels or data frames. Our method based on the big-step approach can also be extended naturally to search for a practical predictability limit in any chaotic system.
Organizer
- Prediction Science Laboratory (RIKEN CPR)
- RIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research (BDR)
Co-organizer
- Data Assimilation Research Team (R-CCS)
- RIKEN Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program
- Environmental Metabolic Analysis Research Team (RIKEN CSRS)
- Computational Climate Science Research Team (R-CCS)
- Medical Data Deep Learning Team (R-IH)
- Medical Data Mathematical Reasoning Team (R-IH)
- Laboratory for Physical Biology (RIKEN BDR)