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Event Information

32nd Prediction Science Seminar

Date
January 8th, 2025 (Wed.) 16:00-17:30 (JST)
Language
Engish
Place
C107(R-CCS) or online(zoom)

To join the seminar, please contact the Prediction Science Seminar Office: prediction-seminar[remove here]@ml.riken.jp

Program

Time Content Speaker
16:00-17:00 On the predictability of AI models for weather prediction Prof. Chanh Kieu (Indiana University)
17:00-17:30 Discussion -

Abstract

In this presentation, we examine the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using idealized settings with Lorenz 1963's model as well as deep-learning architectures trained on the ERA5 data, we show that different time-stepping techniques can have a strong influence on the model performance and weather predictability due to the chaotic nature of weather systems. Specifically, a small-step approach for which the future state is predicted by recursively iterating an AI model over a small-time increment displays strong sensitivity to the type of input channels, the number of data frames, or forecast lead times. In contrast, a big-step approach for which a current state is directly projected to a future state at each corresponding lead time provides much better forecast skill and a longer predictability range. In particular, the big-step approach is very resilient to different input channels, or data frames. In this regard, our results present a different method for implementing global AI models for weather prediction, which can optimize the model performance even with minimum input channels or data frames. Our method based on the big-step approach can also be extended naturally to search for a practical predictability limit in any chaotic system.

Organizer

  • Prediction Science Laboratory (RIKEN CPR)
  • RIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research (BDR)

Co-organizer

  • Data Assimilation Research Team (R-CCS)
  • RIKEN Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program
  • Environmental Metabolic Analysis Research Team (RIKEN CSRS)
  • Computational Climate Science Research Team (R-CCS)
  • Medical Data Deep Learning Team (R-IH)
  • Medical Data Mathematical Reasoning Team (R-IH)
  • Laboratory for Physical Biology (RIKEN BDR)

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